USDJPY:

USD/JPY's strong rally last week and break of 91.57 resistance as well as the short term falling trend line indicates that fall from 100.54 has completed at 87.13. From a short term angle, further rally is now expected as long as 90.10 support holds, targeting 93.90 cluster resistance first. Though, upside should be limited there and bring decline resumption. Below 90.10 will flip intraday bias for retesting 87.13 low first.



In the bigger picture, fall from 110.66, which is treated as resumption of down trend from 124.13, is still in progress. While some rebound might be seen, such decline is expected to resumption after completing the correction, targeting 100% projection of 124.13 to 95.77 from 110.66 at 82.3. However, considering bullish convergence condition in daily MACD, break of 93.90 resistance will be an important early alert that whole decline from 110.66 has completed. Focus will then be on 100.54 resistance for confirmation.



In the long term picture, price actions that started from 79.75 (95 low) has completed in form of a triangle that ended with five waves to 124.13. In other words fall from 124.13 is just part of an even larger scale down trend. Such fall from 124.13 is expected to develop into a five wave sequence (95.77, 100.66,.....) and could extend further to retest 79.75 low. Break of 110.66 is needed to invalidate the long term bearish view.


祝大家新年快樂，飲多杯

how was the trip for Toronto?

AUDUSD:

AUD/USD edged higher to 0.7267 last week but failed to sustain there and retreated. An intraday top should at least be in place and more importantly, bearish divergence condition in 4 hours MACD is arguing that whole rise from 0.6075 has completed too. Initial bias is mildly on the downside this week as long as 0.7143 minor resistance holds. Further break of 0.6760 support will add much credence to the immediate bearish case, i.e. whole three wave consolidation from 0.6008 (0.7014, 0.6075, 0.7267) has completed too. Hence, deeper fall should be seen to retest 0.6008 low. On the upside, though, above 0.7143 will delay the bearish case and suggest that another rise could be seen before topping.

In the bigger picture, whole fall from 0.9849 made a bottom at 0.6008 and turned into sideway consolidation since then. Such consolidation should be near to completion, if not completed at 0.7267 already). Firm break of 0.6008 will indicate that the down trend has resumed for at least another five wave medium term decline, targeting 0.4773 (01 low). Though another rise above 0.7267 will indicate that consolidation from 0.6008 is still in progress for 38.2% retracement of 0.9849 to 0.6008 at 0.7475 before completion.

In the longer term picture, a long term top is in place at 0.9849 with bearish divergence condition in monthly MACD and RSI. Considering the corrective three wave structure of the multi year up trend from 0.4773 to 0.9849 and the impulsive nature of the fall from 0.9849, the long term down trend could be resuming. Having said that, while some interim medium term consolidation could be seen, the fall from 0.9849 is in favor to extend to retest 0.4773 low at least.

不如講下股市,可用中文嗎

美國嘅市道真係好唔掂，我咁耐都未見過差成咁。
無錢駛嘅，就無謂提。有錢嘅，就話遲下仲平，無必要都唔會駛住。
而家淨係美國政府花錢，咁個經濟想短期翻生都難。

次按條根仲未有緩和積象，睇睇：
http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/15/real_estate/millions_in_foreclosure/index.htm

各地嘅失業率繼續鬥快升。

全球主要股票指數又去番低位，
咁你就知美國佬幾等錢駛啦。

大陸黎緊嘅經濟情況不容樂觀。
上次 1929 Great Depression 全球衰退得最勁嘅，係依賴出口最多嘅國家。

睇黎隻牛仔要冬眠一排至出生。

drink beer la............
drink            

hihi...
another new thread...
support...
hows your trip in canada and US???

Yes, it is time to digest what it means to you and your money.  If you have time, I suggest you read my blog in the signature link below.  I have been relying on this and have been a winner of this financial abyss, which is not seen for at least a generation!